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FK Sliven vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
4 – 2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
11/2/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 16Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven42%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
1.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.50

FK Sliven creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 92 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
65%
FK Sliven or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
58%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
81%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
50%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
44%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
55%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FK Sliven scores more
42%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
35%

FK Sliven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FK Sliven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sliven vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FK Sliven beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 4-2 in Third League - Southeast on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.