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Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Botev Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
4/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 28Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II42%
×Draw25%
Botev Plovdiv II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.50
Botev Plovdiv II
1.31

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
Botev Plovdiv II
1.47

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
Botev Plovdiv II
1.26

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
67%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Botev Plovdiv II
75%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv II
58%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
20%
Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
44%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
19%
Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
73%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
38%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
56%
Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
42%
level
25%
Botev Plovdiv II scores more
33%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2–0 Botev Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Plovdiv.