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Botev Plovdiv II vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
9/27/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 9Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II58%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
2.31
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.38

Botev Plovdiv II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 92 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
2.95
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.63
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
78%
Botev Plovdiv II or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
42%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
36%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
90%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
67%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
72%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.31

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
58%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
22%

Botev Plovdiv II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv II 1–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Botev Plovdiv II 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.