Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3–0 Asenovets: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Asenovets

9/21/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Lokomotiv - Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II61%

×Draw20%

Asenovets19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchAsenovets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

2.18

Asenovets

1.11

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

1.75

creates per match

1.07

1.15

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.75

Asenovets

1.07

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.15

Asenovets

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Asenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Asenovets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw

81%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Asenovets

80%

Draw or Asenovets

39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+

38%

Asenovets wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals

89%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals

64%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals

37%

Asenovets 1+ goals

67%

Asenovets 2+ goals

30%

Asenovets 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

77%

Asenovets (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Asenovets away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.61 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Asenovets defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.18

Asenovets attack 1.07 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more

61%

level

20%

Asenovets scores more

19%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff