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Asenovets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Asenovets
Asenovets
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
4/1/2026Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Asenovets46%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asenovets
1.64
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.27

Asenovets creates 29% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 92 away

creates per match

Asenovets
1.61
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Asenovets
1.40
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Asenovets+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asenovets ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Asenovets or draw
70%
Asenovets or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
54%

Winning margin

Asenovets wins by 2+
24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Asenovets 1+ goals
81%
Asenovets 2+ goals
49%
Asenovets 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
36%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Asenovets (draw refunded)
61%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asenovets at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.40 · 109 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asenovets attack 1.61 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Asenovets defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Asenovets scores more
46%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
30%

Asenovets at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Asenovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asenovets vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Asenovets 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 1, 2026.