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Lokomotiv Oslo vs Kjelsås II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
T. Blaauw 52'
M. Lervik 7'
L. Hermansen 88'
10/23/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 26Tørteberg kunstgress 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo39%
×Draw27%
Kjelsås II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.33
Kjelsås II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.29
Kjelsås II
0.77

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.74
Kjelsås II
1.38

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par
Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Kjelsås II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw
65%
Lokomotiv Oslo or Kjelsås II
73%
Draw or Kjelsås II
61%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
17%
Kjelsås II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
74%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
38%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
15%
Kjelsås II 1+ goals
71%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
36%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
53%
Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.29 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
39%
level
27%
Kjelsås II scores more
35%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Lervik
52'
T. Blaauw
88'
L. Hermansen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Oslo vs Kjelsås II

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Kjelsås II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Lervik (7'), T. Blaauw (52'), L. Hermansen (88').

The match was played at Tørteberg kunstgress 2 in Oslo.