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Kjelsås II vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
U. Bjerke 71'
E. D. Ringlund 84'
M. Badsvik 38'
6/13/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 10Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kjelsås II43%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås II
1.84
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.63

Kjelsås II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kjelsås II
1.54
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.48

allows per match

Kjelsås II
1.77
Lokomotiv Oslo
2.15

finishing

Kjelsås II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kjelsås II or draw
65%
Kjelsås II or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
57%

Winning margin

Kjelsås II wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kjelsås II 1+ goals
84%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
55%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
48%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
55%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås II at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås II attack 1.54 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.48 + Kjelsås II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kjelsås II scores more
43%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
35%

Kjelsås II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kjelsås II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
M. Badsvik
71'
U. Bjerke
84'
E. D. Ringlund

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Kjelsås II 1–2 Lokomotiv Oslo

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Kjelsås II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 13, 2022.

Goals: M. Badsvik (38'), U. Bjerke (71'), E. D. Ringlund (84').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.