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Lokomotiv Oslo vs Gjelleråsen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
P. Asland 66'
B. H. Reiten 18'
G. Severinsen 78' (pen)
10/29/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 26Norges Idrettshøgskole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo30%
×Draw22%
Gjelleråsen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.52
Gjelleråsen
1.97

Gjelleråsen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.29
Gjelleråsen
2.20

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.74
Gjelleråsen
1.75

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par
Gjelleråsen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Gjelleråsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw
52%
Lokomotiv Oslo or Gjelleråsen
78%
Draw or Gjelleråsen
70%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
14%
Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
20%
Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
86%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
58%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
38%
Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

Gjelleråsen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.29 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gjelleråsen attack 2.20 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
30%
level
22%
Gjelleråsen scores more
48%

Gjelleråsen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
B. H. Reiten
66'
P. Asland
78'
G. SeverinsenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Oslo vs Gjelleråsen

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Gjelleråsen 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: B. H. Reiten (18'), P. Asland (66'), G. Severinsen (78' pen).

The match was played at Norges Idrettshøgskole in Oslo.