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Gjelleråsen vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Gjelleråsen
Gjelleråsen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
G. Severinsen 45'
K. Bjorndalen 10'
K. Isaksen 48'
7/1/20233. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 12Li kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gjelleråsen60%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Oslo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gjelleråsen
2.39
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.37

Gjelleråsen creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gjelleråsen
2.63
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.48

allows per match

Gjelleråsen
1.26
Lokomotiv Oslo
2.15

finishing

Gjelleråsen+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gjelleråsen ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Gjelleråsen or draw
79%
Gjelleråsen or Lokomotiv Oslo
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
40%

Winning margin

Gjelleråsen wins by 2+
38%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gjelleråsen 1+ goals
91%
Gjelleråsen 2+ goals
69%
Gjelleråsen 3+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
40%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gjelleråsen (draw refunded)
74%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gjelleråsen at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gjelleråsen attack 2.63 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.39

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.48 + Gjelleråsen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gjelleråsen scores more
60%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
21%

Gjelleråsen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gjelleråsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
K. Bjorndalen
45'
G. Severinsen
48'
K. Isaksen
90'
A. Fredvik
90'
A. Fredvik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Gjelleråsen 2–1 Lokomotiv Oslo

Gjelleråsen beat Lokomotiv Oslo 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on July 1, 2023.

Goals: K. Bjorndalen (10'), G. Severinsen (45'), K. Isaksen (48').

The match was played at Li kunstgress in Hagan.