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Lokomotiv Oslo vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
K. Isaksen 38', 15'
U. Bjerke 35'
K. Lonebu 90+1', 75'
T. Ytterland 83'
9/22/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 22Frogner Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lokomotiv Oslo42%
×Draw24%
Aalesund II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.66
Aalesund II
1.47

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.77
Aalesund II
1.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Oslo
1.08
Aalesund II
1.55

finishing

Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Oslo ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Oslo or draw
66%
Lokomotiv Oslo or Aalesund II
76%
Draw or Aalesund II
58%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
22%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
23%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
77%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
43%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
55%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Oslo at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.77 + Aalesund II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Aalesund II attack 1.85 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
42%
level
24%
Aalesund II scores more
34%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Isaksen
35'
U. Bjerke
38'
K. Isaksen
75'
K. Lonebu
83'
T. Ytterland
90+1'
K. Lonebu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Lokomotiv Oslo 3–3 Aalesund II

Lokomotiv Oslo and Aalesund II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 22, 2024.

Goals: K. Isaksen (15', 38'), U. Bjerke (35'), K. Lonebu (75', 90+1'), T. Ytterland (83').

The match was played at Frogner Stadion in Oslo.