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Aalesund II vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
R. Warholm 89'
M. Gulbrandsen 21'
K. Lonebu 14'
A. Haraldsen 84'
M. Mykkeltvedt 52'
6/8/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 10Ratvika Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II33%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.58
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.86

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.63
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.77

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.95
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.54

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
55%
Aalesund II or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
67%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
79%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
47%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
21%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
43%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.63 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.77 + Aalesund II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aalesund II scores more
33%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
45%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
K. Lonebu
21'
M. Gulbrandsen
52'
M. Mykkeltvedt
84'
A. Haraldsen
89'
R. Warholm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Aalesund II 3–2 Lokomotiv Oslo

Aalesund II beat Lokomotiv Oslo 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: K. Lonebu (14'), M. Gulbrandsen (21'), M. Mykkeltvedt (52'), A. Haraldsen (84'), R. Warholm (89').

The match was played at Ratvika Stadion in Ålesund.