Lokomotiv Moscow 1–2 Juventus: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Moscow

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus

11/6/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 4RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow26%

×Draw25%

Juventus50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MoscowExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.64

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.10

Juventus

1.64

Juventus creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

0.78

creates per match

1.50

1.78

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

0.78

Juventus

1.50

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow

1.78

Juventus

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw

50%

Lokomotiv Moscow or Juventus

75%

Draw or Juventus

74%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

10%

Juventus wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

67%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

10%

Juventus 1+ goals

81%

Juventus 2+ goals

49%

Juventus 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

34%

Juventus (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 0.78 + Juventus defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.10

Juventus attack 1.50 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

26%

level

25%

Juventus scores more

50%

Juventus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff