Juventus 2–1 Lokomotiv Moscow: Result & Stats

Juventus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Moscow

10/22/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Juventus65%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Moscow14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.75

Juventus

1.93

Lokomotiv Moscow

0.75

Juventus creates 157% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juventus

1.86

Lokomotiv Moscow

0.50

allows per match

Juventus

1.00

Lokomotiv Moscow

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

86%

Juventus or Lokomotiv Moscow

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow

35%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

40%

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

85%

Juventus 2+ goals

57%

Juventus 3+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals

53%

Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals

17%

Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

83%

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.86 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 0.50 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Juventus scores more

65%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more

14%

Juventus at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff