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Lokomotiv Moscow vs Anzhi — Premier League 2018

Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Anzhi
Anzhi
8/26/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv Moscow61%
×Draw24%
Anzhi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.68
Anzhi
0.68

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 147% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.69
Anzhi
0.33

allows per match

Lokomotiv Moscow
1.02
Anzhi
1.67

finishing

Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par
Anzhi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Moscow ↓

Anzhi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Moscow or draw
85%
Lokomotiv Moscow or Anzhi
76%
Draw or Anzhi
39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
35%
Anzhi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
50%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
24%
Anzhi 1+ goals
49%
Anzhi 2+ goals
15%
Anzhi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
81%
Anzhi (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Moscow at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Anzhi away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.69 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.68

Anzhi attack 0.33 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
61%
level
24%
Anzhi scores more
15%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lokomotiv Moscow 2–1 Anzhi

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Anzhi 2-1 in Premier League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moscow.