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Anzhi vs Lokomotiv Moscow — Premier League 2018

Anzhi
Anzhi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv Moscow
Lokomotiv Moscow
3/10/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anzhi23%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Moscow52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anzhi
0.98
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.59

Lokomotiv Moscow creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 120 away

creates per match

Anzhi
0.53
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.52

allows per match

Anzhi
1.67
Lokomotiv Moscow
1.43

finishing

Anzhi+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anzhi ↓

Lokomotiv Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Anzhi or draw
48%
Anzhi or Lokomotiv Moscow
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moscow
77%

Winning margin

Anzhi wins by 2+
8%
Lokomotiv Moscow wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Anzhi 1+ goals
62%
Anzhi 2+ goals
26%
Anzhi 3+ goals
8%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv Moscow 2+ goals
47%
Lokomotiv Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Anzhi (draw refunded)
31%
Lokomotiv Moscow (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anzhi at home — creates 0.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv Moscow away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anzhi attack 0.53 + Lokomotiv Moscow defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.98

Lokomotiv Moscow attack 1.52 + Anzhi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Anzhi scores more
23%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Moscow scores more
52%

Lokomotiv Moscow at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Anzhi 0–2 Lokomotiv Moscow

Lokomotiv Moscow beat Anzhi 2-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Makhachkala.