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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3/25/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra33%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.53
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.78

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 43 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
56%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
67%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
83%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
53%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
43%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
33%
level
23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
44%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Mezdra 1–0 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv Mezdra beat Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.