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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
10/26/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 5Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa68%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv Mezdra14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.35
Lokomotiv Mezdra
0.94

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 150% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 106 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
86%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Lokomotiv Mezdra
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
32%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
46%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
41%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
61%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
24%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
83%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.35

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
68%
level
18%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
14%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–0 Lokomotiv Mezdra

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Lokomotiv Mezdra 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.