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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
CANC
12:30
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
3/9/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 18Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra41%
×Draw25%
Dunav Lom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.53
Dunav Lom
1.39

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
65%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Dunav Lom
75%
Draw or Dunav Lom
59%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
20%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
20%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
75%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
40%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
54%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
41%
level
25%
Dunav Lom scores more
35%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lokomotiv Mezdra host Dunav Lom

March 9, 2024: Lokomotiv Mezdra take on Dunav Lom in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lokomotiv Mezdra host Dunav Lom at Stadion Lokomotiv.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.