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Dunav Lom vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
FT
2 – 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
8/26/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 3Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom59%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Mezdra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
1.96
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.04

Dunav Lom creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 106 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
80%
Dunav Lom or Lokomotiv Mezdra
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
41%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
35%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
86%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
58%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
75%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
59%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
20%

Dunav Lom at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Lom vs Lokomotiv Mezdra

Dunav Lom beat Lokomotiv Mezdra 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.