Lokomotiv Mezdra 0–0 Botev Lukovit: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Mezdra

FT

0 – 0

Botev Lukovit

4/7/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 22Stadion Lokomotiv (Mezdra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra62%

×Draw21%

Botev Lukovit17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv MezdraExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.93

Lokomotiv Mezdra

2.00

Botev Lukovit

0.93

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 115% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

2.06

creates per match

0.80

1.06

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra

2.06

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.06

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw

83%

Lokomotiv Mezdra or Botev Lukovit

79%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

38%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+

38%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals

86%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals

59%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals

32%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

61%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

24%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)

79%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more

62%

level

21%

Botev Lukovit scores more

17%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff