Botev Lukovit 0–1 Lokomotiv Mezdra: Result & Stats

Botev Lukovit

FT

0 – 1

Lokomotiv Mezdra

9/23/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 7Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit52%

×Draw24%

Lokomotiv Mezdra24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev LukovitExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Mezdra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.11

Botev Lukovit

1.75

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.11

Botev Lukovit creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

1.87

creates per match

1.36

0.87

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Botev Lukovit

1.87

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.36

allows per match

Botev Lukovit

0.87

Lokomotiv Mezdra

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw

76%

Botev Lukovit or Lokomotiv Mezdra

76%

Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra

48%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

29%

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

83%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

52%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

25%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals

67%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

68%

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more

52%

level

24%

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more

24%

Botev Lukovit at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff