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Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
5/3/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 23Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra55%
×Draw23%
Akademik Svishtov23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.87
Akademik Svishtov
1.13

Lokomotiv Mezdra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
2.06
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.06
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Mezdra ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Mezdra or draw
77%
Lokomotiv Mezdra or Akademik Svishtov
77%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
31%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
29%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
68%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
31%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
70%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Mezdra at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 2.06 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.87

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
55%
level
23%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
23%

Lokomotiv Mezdra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Mezdra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Akademik Svishtov

Lokomotiv Mezdra and Akademik Svishtov drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Mezdra.