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Akademik Svishtov vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
11/9/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 10Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Akademik Svishtov53%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Mezdra24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
1.80
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.14

Akademik Svishtov creates 58% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 106 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
76%
Akademik Svishtov or Lokomotiv Mezdra
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
47%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
29%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
83%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
54%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
27%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
32%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
69%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.80

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
53%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
24%

Akademik Svishtov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Akademik Svishtov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Akademik Svishtov 0–0 Lokomotiv Mezdra

Akademik Svishtov and Lokomotiv Mezdra drew 0-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.