Lokomotiv Gomel 0–2 Belshina: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Gomel

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Belshina

N. Golub 87'

I. Tymonyuk 6'

7/6/2024

1. Division · Round 14Stadyen Lakamatyu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Lokomotiv Gomel39%

×Draw24%

Belshina38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv GomelExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.58

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.61

Belshina

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 79 away

2.00

creates per match

2.09

1.07

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

2.00

Belshina

2.09

allows per match

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.07

Belshina

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Gomel ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Gomel or draw

62%

Lokomotiv Gomel or Belshina

76%

Draw or Belshina

61%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

19%

Belshina wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

80%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

48%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

22%

Belshina 1+ goals

79%

Belshina 2+ goals

47%

Belshina 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

51%

Belshina (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 120 matches

Belshina away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 2.00 + Belshina defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Belshina attack 2.09 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

39%

level

24%

Belshina scores more

38%

Lokomotiv Gomel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lokomotiv Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

I. Tymonyuk

18'

S. Izhakovskiy

46'

K. Khvastukhin← D. Krivosheev

46'

N. Golub← D. Chertkoev

66'

N. Sokolovskiy← M. Katsynel

66'

V. Kabachevskiy← I. Sen

67'

D. Denisenko

68'

D. Emelyanov← A. Krasnov

68'

S. Krivorot← P. Markov

74'

V. Balbukh← M. Samotoy

82'

I. Kuzmenok← E. Milevskiy

87'

N. Golub

89'

K. Malykh← D. Denisenko

Lokomotiv

Belshina

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Morozov

46'▲K. Khvastukhin←▼D. Krivosheev

68'▲D. Emelyanov←▼A. Krasnov

68'▲S. Krivorot←▼P. Markov

82'▲I. Kuzmenok←▼E. Milevskiy

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

KhvastukhinEmelyanovKrivorotKuzmenokGinkoKaplunovTelepnevStarostenko

Manager: M. Martinovich

46'▲N. Golub←▼D. Chertkoev

66'▲N. Sokolovskiy←▼M. Katsynel

66'▲V. Kabachevskiy←▼I. Sen

74'▲V. Balbukh←▼M. Samotoy

89'▲K. Malykh←▼D. Denisenko

Belshina substitutes

GolubSokolovskiyKabachevskiyBalbukhMalykhMatlakhSeminarGoncharovPatsenkoLomako

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Gomel vs Belshina

Belshina beat Lokomotiv Gomel 2-0 in 1. Division on July 6, 2024.

Goals: I. Tymonyuk (6'), N. Golub (87').

The match was played at Stadyen Lakamatyu in Gomel.

Lokomotiv Gomel vs Belshina — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Gomel vs Belshina