Belshina 0–1 Lokomotiv Gomel: Result & Stats

Belshina

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv Gomel

S. Shestilovskiy 29' (OG)

5/18/2025

1. Division · Round 8Spartak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Belshina53%

×Draw23%

Lokomotiv Gomel24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelshinaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Gomel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.14

Belshina

1.81

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.14

Belshina creates 59% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 121 away

2.34

creates per match

1.37

0.91

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Belshina

2.34

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.37

allows per match

Belshina

0.91

Lokomotiv Gomel

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Lokomotiv Gomel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Belshina or draw

76%

Belshina or Lokomotiv Gomel

77%

Draw or Lokomotiv Gomel

47%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+

30%

Lokomotiv Gomel wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals

84%

Belshina 2+ goals

54%

Belshina 3+ goals

27%

Lokomotiv Gomel 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv Gomel 2+ goals

32%

Lokomotiv Gomel 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)

69%

Lokomotiv Gomel (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.91 · 80 matches

Lokomotiv Gomel away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.28 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 2.34 + Lokomotiv Gomel defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lokomotiv Gomel attack 1.37 + Belshina defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Belshina scores more

53%

level

23%

Lokomotiv Gomel scores more

24%

Belshina at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

P. Seleznev

29'

S. ShestilovskiyOwn goal

38'

M. Rabadanov← D. Nizhnik

46'

V. Balbukh← Y. Shatalin

65'

A. Davidovich← V. Sychev

67'

A. Achapovskiy

70'

A. Zimin← P. Seleznev

86'

V. Gizhevskiy← V. Myzgin

86'

S. Krivorot← A. Smaltser

88'

D. Kulikov← A. Achapovskiy

Belshina

Lokomotiv

88

Prishival

89

Lazarchik

97

A

Muzychenk

23

▼

Sychev

8

▼

33

77

22

7

▼

Smaltser

27

Nekrasov

17

▼

Myzgin

35

Frolov

44

🥅

3

4

10

5

▼

Seleznev

19

Sokolovsk

7

▼

Achapovsk

24

Gorbach

18

Tkachenko

22

▼

Shatalin

Manager: I. Trukhov

46'▲V. Balbukh←▼Y. Shatalin

70'▲A. Zimin←▼P. Seleznev

88'▲D. Kulikov←▼A. Achapovskiy

Belshina substitutes

17Vikhrov77Zimin88Dubovskiy99Kulikov8Balbukh54Patsenko

Manager: A. Morozov

38'▲M. Rabadanov←▼D. Nizhnik

65'▲A. Davidovich←▼V. Sychev

86'▲V. Gizhevskiy←▼V. Myzgin

86'▲S. Krivorot←▼A. Smaltser

Lokomotiv Gomel substitutes

44Korostelev99Bogomazov9Rabadanov11Gizhevskiy55Davidovich25Kovsh24Katsynel10Krivorot1Isachenko21Milevskiy