Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0–1 Tsarsko Selo

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tsarsko Selo

A. Georgiev 36'

3/4/2019

Second League · Round 19Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa32%

×Draw26%

Tsarsko Selo42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.47

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.25

Tsarsko Selo

1.47

Tsarsko Selo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 21 away

1.21

creates per match

1.90

1.04

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.21

Tsarsko Selo

1.90

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.04

Tsarsko Selo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw

58%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Tsarsko Selo

74%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

68%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

14%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

71%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

13%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

77%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

43%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

43%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.04 · 76 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 1.21 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.90 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

32%

level

26%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

42%

Tsarsko Selo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Georgiev

46'

P. Chalakov← F. Angelov

46'

E. Manev← A. Kabov

60'

A. Popov← P. Chalakov

62'

K. Vasilev← I. Yordanov

78'

A. Zlatkov← S. Slavkov

87'

V. Semerdzhiev← G. Andonov

Lokomotiv

Tsarsko

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Mechev

46'▲P. Chalakov←▼F. Angelov

60'▲A. Popov←▼P. Chalakov

78'▲A. Zlatkov←▼S. Slavkov

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa substitutes

ChalakovPopovZlatkovSlavovNikolovSandovVelkov

Manager: N. Spasov

46'▲E. Manev←▼A. Kabov

62'▲K. Vasilev←▼I. Yordanov

87'▲V. Semerdzhiev←▼G. Andonov

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

ManevVasilevSemerdzhievMarkovVianaTenevAndonov

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Tsarsko Selo

Tsarsko Selo beat Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1-0 in Second League on March 4, 2019.

Goals: A. Georgiev (36').

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv (Gorna Oryahovitsa).

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Tsarsko Selo — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Tsarsko Selo