Tsarsko Selo 2–1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Tsarsko Selo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

G. Minchev 24', 19'

T. Trifonov 31'

8/18/2018

Second League · Round 4Tsarsko selo Complex (Sofia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tsarsko Selo65%

×Draw20%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tsarsko SeloExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.87

Tsarsko Selo

2.08

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

0.87

Tsarsko Selo creates 139% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

2.47

creates per match

0.90

0.84

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Tsarsko Selo

2.47

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

0.90

allows per match

Tsarsko Selo

0.84

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tsarsko Selo ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tsarsko Selo or draw

85%

Tsarsko Selo or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

80%

Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

35%

Winning margin

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

41%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

87%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

61%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

34%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals

58%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals

22%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

82%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tsarsko Selo at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.47 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 0.90 + Tsarsko Selo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tsarsko Selo scores more

65%

level

20%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more

15%

Tsarsko Selo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

G. Minchev

24'

G. Minchev

31'

T. Trifonov

55'

Y. Yordanov← K. Kitov

59'

T. Kanev← G. Kolev

67'

V. Semerdzhiev← B. Katsarov

75'

V. Kaloyanov← E. Manev

75'

I. Harizanov← M. Nikolov

83'

N. Dyulgerov← V. Kaloyanov

Tsarsko

Lokomotiv

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: N. Spasov

67'▲V. Semerdzhiev←▼B. Katsarov

75'▲V. Kaloyanov←▼E. Manev

83'▲N. Dyulgerov←▼V. Kaloyanov

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

SemerdzhievKaloyanovDyulgerovHashevMinkovMarkovKatsarev

Manager: T. Kiselichkov

55'▲Y. Yordanov←▼K. Kitov

59'▲T. Kanev←▼G. Kolev

75'▲I. Harizanov←▼M. Nikolov

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa substitutes

YordanovKanevHarizanovYordanovVelikovDimitrovSimeonov