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Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Akademik Svishtov — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
4/2/2022Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa71%
×Draw17%
Akademik Svishtov12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.38
Akademik Svishtov
0.85

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 180% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
3.09
Akademik Svishtov
1.19

allows per match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
0.51
Akademik Svishtov
1.68

finishing

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par
Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa ↓

Akademik Svishtov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or draw
88%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Akademik Svishtov
83%
Draw or Akademik Svishtov
29%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
48%
Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
91%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
68%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
42%
Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
57%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
21%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
86%
Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.51 · 45 matches

Akademik Svishtov away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 3.09 + Akademik Svishtov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.38

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.19 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
71%
level
17%
Akademik Svishtov scores more
12%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Akademik Svishtov

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Akademik Svishtov 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Gorna Oryahovitsa.