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Akademik Svishtov vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Akademik Svishtov
Akademik Svishtov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2/24/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 16Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Akademik Svishtov34%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademik Svishtov
1.49
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.71

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 43 away

creates per match

Akademik Svishtov
1.98
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
2.51

allows per match

Akademik Svishtov
0.91
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00

finishing

Akademik Svishtov+0.00on par
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademik Svishtov ↓

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Akademik Svishtov or draw
57%
Akademik Svishtov or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
66%

Winning margin

Akademik Svishtov wins by 2+
16%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Akademik Svishtov 1+ goals
77%
Akademik Svishtov 2+ goals
44%
Akademik Svishtov 3+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1+ goals
82%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2+ goals
51%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Akademik Svishtov (draw refunded)
44%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademik Svishtov at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.91 · 107 matches

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademik Svishtov attack 1.98 + Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa attack 2.51 + Akademik Svishtov defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Akademik Svishtov scores more
34%
level
23%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa scores more
43%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademik Svishtov vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa beat Akademik Svishtov 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Svištov.