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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Kom Berkovitsa — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
2 – 3
Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
4/12/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 20Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo47%
×Draw24%
Kom Berkovitsa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.65
Kom Berkovitsa
1.23

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Kom Berkovitsa
0.98

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Kom Berkovitsa
1.82

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Kom Berkovitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
71%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Kom Berkovitsa
76%
Draw or Kom Berkovitsa
53%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
25%
Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
23%
Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
71%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
35%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
62%
Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Kom Berkovitsa away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kom Berkovitsa attack 0.98 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
47%
level
24%
Kom Berkovitsa scores more
29%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2–3 Kom Berkovitsa

Kom Berkovitsa beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3-2 in Third League - Northwest on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.