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Kom Berkovitsa vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Kom Berkovitsa
Kom Berkovitsa
CANC
00:00
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
5/3/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 22Stadion Mramor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kom Berkovitsa67%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom Berkovitsa
2.25
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.92

Kom Berkovitsa creates 145% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Kom Berkovitsa
2.07
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Kom Berkovitsa
0.95
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Kom Berkovitsa+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom Berkovitsa ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kom Berkovitsa or draw
86%
Kom Berkovitsa or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
33%

Winning margin

Kom Berkovitsa wins by 2+
44%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kom Berkovitsa 1+ goals
89%
Kom Berkovitsa 2+ goals
65%
Kom Berkovitsa 3+ goals
39%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
60%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kom Berkovitsa (draw refunded)
83%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom Berkovitsa at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.95 · 44 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom Berkovitsa attack 2.07 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.25

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Kom Berkovitsa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kom Berkovitsa scores more
67%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
14%

Kom Berkovitsa at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kom Berkovitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kom Berkovitsa face Lokomotiv Dryanovo (Third League - Northwest)

Third League - Northwest returns with Kom Berkovitsa hosting Lokomotiv Dryanovo. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kom Berkovitsa host Lokomotiv Dryanovo at Stadion Mramor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.