Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1–2 Juventus Malchika

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Juventus Malchika

3/12/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 21Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo64%

×Draw19%

Juventus Malchika17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv DryanovoExpected goals in this matchJuventus Malchika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.14

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.33

Juventus Malchika

1.14

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 104% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 65 away

1.48

creates per match

0.80

1.48

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Juventus Malchika

0.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Juventus Malchika

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Juventus Malchika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw

83%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Juventus Malchika

81%

Draw or Juventus Malchika

36%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

41%

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

90%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

67%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

41%

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals

68%

Juventus Malchika 2+ goals

32%

Juventus Malchika 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

78%

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

64%

level

19%

Juventus Malchika scores more

17%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff