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Juventus Malchika vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
4/29/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 25Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Juventus Malchika49%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.95
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.45

Juventus Malchika creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 81 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
0.88

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
2.42

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
71%
Juventus Malchika or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo
51%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
28%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
86%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
58%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
31%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
77%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
42%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
63%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.95

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
49%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
29%

Juventus Malchika at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Malchika vs Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Juventus Malchika beat Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1-0 in Third League - Northwest on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.