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Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Etar VT II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
Lokomotiv Dryanovo
FT
2 – 0
Etar VT II
Etar VT II
5/10/2025Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 24Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo55%
×Draw22%
Etar VT II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.92
Etar VT II
1.17

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Etar VT II
0.85

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo
1.48
Etar VT II
2.35

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par
Etar VT II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Etar VT II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw
77%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Etar VT II
78%
Draw or Etar VT II
45%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+
32%
Etar VT II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals
57%
Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals
30%
Etar VT II 1+ goals
69%
Etar VT II 2+ goals
33%
Etar VT II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)
70%
Etar VT II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Etar VT II away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.35 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Etar VT II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

Etar VT II attack 0.85 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more
55%
level
22%
Etar VT II scores more
23%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Dryanovo vs Etar VT II

Lokomotiv Dryanovo beat Etar VT II 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Dryanovo.