Etar VT II 3–2 Lokomotiv Dryanovo: Result & Stats

Etar VT II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

9/3/2022

Third League - Northwest · Northwest - 5Stadion Trifon Ivanov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Etar VT II56%

×Draw21%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Etar VT IIExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Dryanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.31

Etar VT II

2.15

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.31

Etar VT II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 81 away

1.89

creates per match

0.88

1.75

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Etar VT II

1.89

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

allows per match

Etar VT II

1.75

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Etar VT II+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar VT II ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Etar VT II or draw

77%

Etar VT II or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

79%

Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

44%

Winning margin

Etar VT II wins by 2+

34%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Etar VT II 1+ goals

88%

Etar VT II 2+ goals

63%

Etar VT II 3+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

73%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

38%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Etar VT II (draw refunded)

71%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar VT II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 83 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar VT II attack 1.89 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Etar VT II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Etar VT II scores more

56%

level

21%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

23%

Etar VT II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Etar VT II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff