Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3–0 Botev Lukovit

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

FT

3 – 0

Botev Lukovit

5/19/2019

Third League - Northwest · Round 28Stadion Lokomotiv (Dryanovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo51%

×Draw24%

Botev Lukovit25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv DryanovoExpected goals in this matchBotev Lukovit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.14

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.71

Botev Lukovit

1.14

Lokomotiv Dryanovo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

0.80

1.48

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Botev Lukovit

0.80

allows per match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

1.48

Botev Lukovit

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Dryanovo ↓

Botev Lukovit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or draw

75%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo or Botev Lukovit

76%

Draw or Botev Lukovit

49%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

27%

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

82%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

51%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

24%

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

68%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

32%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

67%

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

Botev Lukovit away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 1.48 + Botev Lukovit defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Botev Lukovit attack 0.80 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

51%

level

24%

Botev Lukovit scores more

25%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Dryanovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff