Botev Lukovit 2–0 Lokomotiv Dryanovo

Botev Lukovit

FT

2 – 0

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

10/28/2018

Third League - Northwest · Round 13Stadion Hristo Botev (Lukovit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Botev Lukovit66%

×Draw19%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev LukovitExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Dryanovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.88

Botev Lukovit

2.15

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

Botev Lukovit creates 144% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

1.87

creates per match

0.88

0.87

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Botev Lukovit

1.87

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

0.88

allows per match

Botev Lukovit

0.87

Lokomotiv Dryanovo

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Lukovit+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Dryanovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Lukovit ↓

Lokomotiv Dryanovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Botev Lukovit or draw

86%

Botev Lukovit or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

81%

Draw or Lokomotiv Dryanovo

34%

Winning margin

Botev Lukovit wins by 2+

42%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Botev Lukovit 1+ goals

88%

Botev Lukovit 2+ goals

63%

Botev Lukovit 3+ goals

36%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 1+ goals

59%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 2+ goals

22%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botev Lukovit (draw refunded)

82%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Lukovit at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Lokomotiv Dryanovo away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.42 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Lukovit attack 1.87 + Lokomotiv Dryanovo defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.15

Lokomotiv Dryanovo attack 0.88 + Botev Lukovit defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Botev Lukovit scores more

66%

level

19%

Lokomotiv Dryanovo scores more

14%

Botev Lukovit at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Botev Lukovit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff