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Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs JDFS Alberts — 1. Liga 2026

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
CANC
09:00
JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
10/18/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 15Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils61%
×Draw20%
JDFS Alberts19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.17
JDFS Alberts
1.13

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 85 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.00
JDFS Alberts
1.76

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
0.50
JDFS Alberts
1.33

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par
JDFS Alberts+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

JDFS Alberts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw
81%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils or JDFS Alberts
80%
Draw or JDFS Alberts
39%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
38%
JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
36%
JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
68%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
31%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
76%
JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

JDFS Alberts away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.00 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

JDFS Alberts attack 1.76 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
61%
level
20%
JDFS Alberts scores more
19%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs JDFS Alberts — Match Preview

Lokomotiv Daugavpils face JDFS Alberts on October 18, 2020 in this 1. Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lokomotiv Daugavpils host JDFS Alberts at Stadions Celtnieks.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.