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JDFS Alberts vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

JDFS Alberts
JDFS Alberts
FT
0 – 4
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
M. Andreev 79'
D. Herman 67', 45'
A. Catlakss 50'
8/9/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 6Upesciems pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

JDFS Alberts27%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JDFS Alberts
1.65
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.32

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 6 away

creates per match

JDFS Alberts
2.12
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

JDFS Alberts
1.14
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

JDFS Alberts+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JDFS Alberts ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

JDFS Alberts or draw
47%
JDFS Alberts or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
73%

Winning margin

JDFS Alberts wins by 2+
13%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

JDFS Alberts 1+ goals
81%
JDFS Alberts 2+ goals
49%
JDFS Alberts 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

JDFS Alberts (draw refunded)
34%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JDFS Alberts at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.14 · 84 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JDFS Alberts attack 2.12 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + JDFS Alberts defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

JDFS Alberts scores more
27%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
53%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
D. Herman
50'
A. Catlakss
67'
D. Herman
79'
M. Andreev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: JDFS Alberts 0–4 Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat JDFS Alberts 4-0 in 1. Liga on August 9, 2020.

Goals: D. Herman (45', 67'), A. Catlakss (50'), M. Andreev (79').

The match was played at Upesciems pilsētas stadions in Upesciems.