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Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs Dinamo Rīga / Staicele — 1. Liga 2026

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
FT
1 – 0
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
M. Andreev 20' (pen)
8/29/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 9Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils80%
×Draw13%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.98
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
0.83

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 259% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.00
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.16

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils
0.50
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
2.95

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw
92%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
87%
Draw or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
20%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
60%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
95%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
79%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
56%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals
20%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
91%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.00 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.98

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.16 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
80%
level
13%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more
8%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
M. AndreevPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Daugavpils vs Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1-0 in 1. Liga on August 29, 2020.

Goals: M. Andreev (20' pen).

The match was played at Stadions Celtnieks in Daugavpils.