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Dinamo Rīga / Staicele vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
CANC
12:00
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
11/8/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 18RTU stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele22%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.53
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.58

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.90
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.65
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or draw
40%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
78%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+
10%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals
20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
72%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)
27%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.90 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more
22%
level
18%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
60%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dinamo Rīga / Staicele host Lokomotiv Daugavpils

November 8, 2020: Dinamo Rīga / Staicele take on Lokomotiv Daugavpils in 1. Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele host Lokomotiv Daugavpils at RTU stadions.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.