Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2–0 Auda: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

FT

2 – 0

Auda

A. Jaudzems 10'

A. Yerkin 8'

7/11/2020

1. Liga · Round 2Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils64%

×Draw19%

Auda17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv DaugavpilsExpected goals in this matchAuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.06

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

2.25

Auda

1.06

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

3.00

creates per match

1.62

0.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

3.00

Auda

1.62

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

0.50

Auda

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Auda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

Auda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw

83%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or Auda

81%

Draw or Auda

36%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+

41%

Auda wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals

89%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals

65%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals

39%

Auda 1+ goals

65%

Auda 2+ goals

29%

Auda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)

79%

Auda (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Auda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.00 + Auda defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Auda attack 1.62 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more

64%

level

19%

Auda scores more

17%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Yerkin

10'

A. Jaudzems

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff