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Auda vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

Auda
Auda
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
P. Gbaguidi 21'
S. Cugunovs 18', 10'
V. Zalaks 28'
9/19/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 11Ķekavas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Auda38%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
2.20
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

Auda
3.22
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

Auda
1.15
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Auda or draw
58%
Auda or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
62%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
21%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
89%
Auda 2+ goals
64%
Auda 3+ goals
37%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
90%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
67%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
47%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 3.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 3.22 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.20

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Auda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Auda scores more
38%
level
20%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
42%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Cugunovs
18'
S. Cugunovs
21'
P. Gbaguidi
28'
V. Zalaks

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auda vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Auda beat Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3-1 in 1. Liga on September 19, 2020.

Goals: S. Cugunovs (10', 18'), P. Gbaguidi (21'), V. Zalaks (28').

The match was played at Ķekavas stadions in Ķekava.