Loko Vltavín 1–0 Jiskra Domažlice: Result & Stats

Loko Vltavín

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jiskra Domažlice

4/11/2026

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 23Stadion U Pruhonu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Loko Vltavín39%

×Draw25%

Jiskra Domažlice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Loko VltavínExpected goals in this matchJiskra Domažlice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Loko Vltavín

1.48

Jiskra Domažlice

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 85 away

1.72

creates per match

1.61

1.22

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Loko Vltavín

1.72

Jiskra Domažlice

1.61

allows per match

Loko Vltavín

1.22

Jiskra Domažlice

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loko Vltavín ↓

Jiskra Domažlice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Loko Vltavín or draw

64%

Loko Vltavín or Jiskra Domažlice

75%

Draw or Jiskra Domažlice

61%

Winning margin

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+

19%

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals

77%

Loko Vltavín 2+ goals

43%

Loko Vltavín 3+ goals

19%

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals

76%

Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals

41%

Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)

52%

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loko Vltavín at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 87 matches

Jiskra Domažlice away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loko Vltavín attack 1.72 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jiskra Domažlice attack 1.61 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Loko Vltavín scores more

39%

level

25%

Jiskra Domažlice scores more

36%

Loko Vltavín at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Loko Vltavín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff