Jiskra Domažlice 2–0 Loko Vltavín: Result & Stats

Jiskra Domažlice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Loko Vltavín

9/13/2025

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 6Mestsky stadion Strelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Jiskra Domažlice59%

×Draw21%

Loko Vltavín21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jiskra DomažliceExpected goals in this matchLoko Vltavín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.20

Jiskra Domažlice

2.15

Loko Vltavín

1.20

Jiskra Domažlice creates 79% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 87 away

2.74

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Jiskra Domažlice

2.74

Loko Vltavín

1.23

allows per match

Jiskra Domažlice

1.17

Loko Vltavín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jiskra Domažlice ↓

Loko Vltavín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jiskra Domažlice or draw

79%

Jiskra Domažlice or Loko Vltavín

79%

Draw or Loko Vltavín

41%

Winning margin

Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+

36%

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals

88%

Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals

63%

Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals

36%

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals

70%

Loko Vltavín 2+ goals

34%

Loko Vltavín 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)

74%

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jiskra Domažlice at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.17 · 88 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jiskra Domažlice attack 2.74 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.15

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jiskra Domažlice scores more

59%

level

21%

Loko Vltavín scores more

21%

Jiskra Domažlice at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jiskra Domažlice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff