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Loko Vltavín vs Bohemians 1905 II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
5/7/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 32Stadion na Plynárně

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Loko Vltavín48%
×Draw23%
Bohemians 1905 II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loko Vltavín
1.79
Bohemians 1905 II
1.35

Loko Vltavín creates 33% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 61 away

creates per match

Loko Vltavín
1.72
Bohemians 1905 II
1.48

allows per match

Loko Vltavín
1.22
Bohemians 1905 II
1.85

finishing

Loko Vltavín+0.00on par
Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loko Vltavín ↓

Bohemians 1905 II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Loko Vltavín or draw
71%
Loko Vltavín or Bohemians 1905 II
77%
Draw or Bohemians 1905 II
52%

Winning margin

Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
26%
Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
83%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
53%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
26%
Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
74%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
39%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
62%
Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loko Vltavín at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.22 · 87 matches

Bohemians 1905 II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.85 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loko Vltavín attack 1.72 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Bohemians 1905 II attack 1.48 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Loko Vltavín scores more
48%
level
23%
Bohemians 1905 II scores more
29%

Loko Vltavín at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Loko Vltavín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Loko Vltavín 0–2 Bohemians 1905 II

Bohemians 1905 II beat Loko Vltavín 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion na Plynárně in Praha.