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Bohemians 1905 II vs Loko Vltavín — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Bohemians 1905 II
Bohemians 1905 II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Loko Vltavín
Loko Vltavín
11/16/20253. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 15Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bohemians 1905 II50%
×Draw23%
Loko Vltavín28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905 II
1.88
Loko Vltavín
1.36

Bohemians 1905 II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 87 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905 II
2.21
Loko Vltavín
1.23

allows per match

Bohemians 1905 II
1.49
Loko Vltavín
1.55

finishing

Bohemians 1905 II+0.00on par
Loko Vltavín+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 II ↓

Loko Vltavín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 II or draw
72%
Bohemians 1905 II or Loko Vltavín
77%
Draw or Loko Vltavín
50%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 II wins by 2+
28%
Loko Vltavín wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 II 1+ goals
85%
Bohemians 1905 II 2+ goals
56%
Bohemians 1905 II 3+ goals
29%
Loko Vltavín 1+ goals
74%
Loko Vltavín 2+ goals
39%
Loko Vltavín 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 II (draw refunded)
64%
Loko Vltavín (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 II at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

Loko Vltavín away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 II attack 2.21 + Loko Vltavín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.88

Loko Vltavín attack 1.23 + Bohemians 1905 II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bohemians 1905 II scores more
50%
level
23%
Loko Vltavín scores more
28%

Bohemians 1905 II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 II vs Loko Vltavín

Bohemians 1905 II beat Loko Vltavín 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FC Čechie Uhříněves in Prague.