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Lokeren vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Lokeren
Lokeren
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
10/14/2017Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 10Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lokeren33%
×Draw27%
St. Truiden40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokeren
1.17
St. Truiden
1.30

St. Truiden creates 11% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 141 away

creates per match

Lokeren
0.73
St. Truiden
1.16

allows per match

Lokeren
1.45
St. Truiden
1.60

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw
60%
Lokeren or St. Truiden
73%
Draw or St. Truiden
67%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+
14%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals
69%
Lokeren 2+ goals
33%
Lokeren 3+ goals
11%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
73%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
37%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)
46%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.73 + St. Truiden defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.17

St. Truiden attack 1.16 + Lokeren defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lokeren scores more
33%
level
27%
St. Truiden scores more
40%

St. Truiden at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokeren vs St. Truiden

Lokeren and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 14, 2017.

The match was played at Daknamstadion in Lokeren.