Lokeren 1–0 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

St. Truiden

M. Marić 32' (pen)

11/26/2016

Jupiler Pro League · Round 16Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lokeren34%

×Draw27%

St. Truiden39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.28

Lokeren

1.18

St. Truiden

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 141 away

0.75

creates per match

1.16

1.41

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lokeren

0.75

St. Truiden

1.16

allows per match

Lokeren

1.41

St. Truiden

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

61%

Lokeren or St. Truiden

73%

Draw or St. Truiden

66%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

14%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

69%

Lokeren 2+ goals

33%

Lokeren 3+ goals

12%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

72%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

37%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

47%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.75 + St. Truiden defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

St. Truiden attack 1.16 + Lokeren defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lokeren scores more

34%

level

27%

St. Truiden scores more

39%

St. Truiden at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Ari Freyr Skúlason

32'

M. MarićPenalty

33'

M. Terki← K. Persoons

54'

M. Mirić← G. Hupperts

59'

D. Dakonam← Jorge Pulido

62'

Djene

66'

F. Tchenkoua← C. Cuevas

70'

M. Tičinović← B. Straetman

77'

R. Bezus← Y. Ono

78'

Sascha Kotysch

81'

Ruben Fernandes

90'

Mamadou Bagayoko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LokerenSt.

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots10

1Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target5

6Off Target5

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

7Offsides4