Lokeren 1–3 Kortrijk: Result & Stats

Lokeren

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kortrijk

Marko Miric 14'

Idir Ouali 90'

Felipe Avenatti 73'

Kristof D'Haene 58'

10/6/2018

Jupiler Pro League · Round 10Daknamstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lokeren35%

×Draw27%

Kortrijk38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokerenExpected goals in this matchKortrijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.27

Lokeren

1.21

Kortrijk

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 116 away

0.77

creates per match

1.11

1.42

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lokeren

0.77

Kortrijk

1.11

allows per match

Lokeren

1.42

Kortrijk

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokeren+0.00on par

Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokeren ↓

Kortrijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lokeren or draw

62%

Lokeren or Kortrijk

73%

Draw or Kortrijk

65%

Winning margin

Lokeren wins by 2+

15%

Kortrijk wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lokeren 1+ goals

70%

Lokeren 2+ goals

34%

Lokeren 3+ goals

12%

Kortrijk 1+ goals

72%

Kortrijk 2+ goals

36%

Kortrijk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lokeren (draw refunded)

48%

Kortrijk (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokeren at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokeren attack 0.77 + Kortrijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kortrijk attack 1.11 + Lokeren defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lokeren scores more

35%

level

27%

Kortrijk scores more

38%

Kortrijk at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Marko Miric

46'

Idir Ouali← Teddy Chevalier

55'

Jovan Stojanovic

56'

Jose Francisco Cevallos

58'

Kristof D'Haene

61'

Felipe Avenatti← Larry Azouni

68'

Kristof D'Haene

71'

Geoffrey Bia← Guus Hupperts

73'

Felipe Avenatti

78'

Đorđe Jovanović← Lukáš Mareček

86'

Bambo Diaby← Mickael Tirpan

86'

Kanu← Jovan Stojanovic

90'

Idir Ouali

Shots

Statistics

LokerenKortrijk

Overview

8Total Shots10

5Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target5

5Off Target5

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4